What Would An Economic Downturn Mean For The Recruitment Industry?

What Would An Economic Downturn Mean For The Recruitment Industry?


The UK economy could suffer a bigger blow from the global energy crisis than other leading nations, according to the international body of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The UK is said to contract more than any other nation in the G7 group next year. The OECD forecasts a "significant growth slowdown" globally in 2023 but they expect the UK’s economy to shrink by 0.4% followed by shallow growth of just 0.2% in 2024.

"Better targeting of measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices would lower the budgetary cost, better-preserve incentives to save energy, and reduce the pressure on demand at a time of high inflation," it said.

Other governing bodies have also made similar predictions with The Bank of England also stating earlier this month that the downturn could last for two years, and The Office for National Statistics (ONS), the body in charge of tracking the data, confirming the economy shrank began between July and September and it will continue to if changes are not made.


What does this mean for the job market?

The jobs market was dramatically affected by the pandemic and is still set to fully return back to normal. Long-term sickness and early retirement have seen the number of people classed as economically ‘inactive’ grow by more than ? meaning some sectors have struggled with labour shortages.

Whilst there are thousands of vacancies out there, the number of suitable workers is scarce, which in some cases can push up wages in those sectors (as happened with the lorry driver shortage after the lockdown).

While this isn’t ideal for growth, it does mean the unemployment rate is at just 3.5%, the lowest level since 1974.

However, there are signs this could be changing, according to the auditing firm KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation hiring started to slow down in October for the first time in 20 months, suggesting the post-Covid jobs boom is coming to an end.

In conclusion, predicting the future of the UK economy will be challenging for many recruiters and organisations. However, with the right tools keeping your onboarding levels high can be easy!

We can help you plan and anticipate future requirements via our database service and coaching service which is tailored to each individual’s needs and includes preparation for specialist interviews for highly sought-after roles in Tier One firms.